Space may seem infinite, but the orbital regions where we place our satellites are becoming increasingly crowded. As commercial spaceflight enters a new era, the risk of falling space junk is growing, and those on Earth can no longer dismiss the threat as an improbable event.
According to Ars Technica, pieces of space hardware continue to fall to Earth despite expectations that they should burn up in the atmosphere. This year alone, a part of the International Space Station crashed through a Florida home’s roof, and a suspected piece of a SpaceX Dragon spacecraft landed on a Canadian farm. These incidents, particularly the near-fatal one in Florida, have prompted experts to call for a better understanding of why this keeps happening.
“The biggest immediate need now is to do more work to understand this whole process and be ready to accommodate new materials and operational approaches as they develop,” Marlon Sorge, executive director of The Aerospace Corporation’s Center for Orbital and Reentry Debris Studies, told Ars Technica. “That’s clearly the direction spaceflight is heading.”
Chaotic Conditions
Government agencies like NASA and the European Space Agency recognize space junk as a significant issue. Alongside their contributions, commercial entities like SpaceX are adding to the clutter, raising concerns with the Federal Aviation Administration.
Most efforts have focused on designing specialized spacecraft or lasers to safely deorbit debris, including the ISS. However, the mechanics of re-entry are complex. Modern spacecraft are built with lightweight composites that should disintegrate upon re-entry but often don’t.
“It’s not just the materials that go into the composite,” explained Greg Henning, manager of the debris and disposal section at Aerospace’s space situational awareness department. Various factors, including construction methods and unpredictable elements like the orientation of falling debris, could influence re-entry outcomes.
“Is it tumbling? Is it reentering in a stable configuration? Many factors contribute to what happens during a re-entry,” Henning added. “This complexity makes it challenging to determine if something will survive or not.”
While there are no easy solutions currently, addressing these long-term problems is crucial as the volume of space launches continues to grow.