A recent study by the climate risk analysis organization XDI has highlighted a concerning trend regarding the vulnerability of hospitals to extreme weather conditions, a pressing issue exacerbated by climate change. According to the report, by the year 2100, one in 12 hospitals globally could face a high risk of shutdown due to extreme weather if fossil fuel usage is not significantly reduced and high emissions continue. This analysis assessed over 200,000 hospitals worldwide for their susceptibility to six different climate change hazards, including flooding, forest fires, extreme winds, and coastal inundation.
The study places the Philippines in a particularly precarious position, ranking it seventh globally in terms of the number of high-risk hospitals. Out of 2,057 hospitals analyzed in the Philippines, 550, or 26.7%, were categorized as high-risk. This classification is based on a high probability of total or partial shutdown within the building’s design life. India, China, and Japan top the list with the highest number of high-risk hospitals.
The report goes further, stating that if these were residential or commercial buildings, they would be deemed uninsurable due to their high risk. It emphasizes the need for in-depth risk analysis of buildings to determine if adaptation measures could mitigate risks or if relocation is the only viable option.
Southeast Asia, particularly the Philippines, Laos, and Vietnam, are identified as regions with the highest percentage of hospitals at risk. The region has seen a 67% increase in risk of damage from extreme weather related to climate change since 1990. These countries, categorized as low to middle-income, face the prospect that by 2100, one in four of their hospitals might not be able to withstand severe weather events without a rapid reduction in emissions.
If greenhouse gas emissions continue unabated and fossil fuels are not phased out, an estimated 16,245 hospitals globally will be compelled to develop adaptation strategies. In many cases, relocation might be the only feasible solution. However, the report offers a silver lining: limiting global warming to 1.8 degrees Celsius and rapidly phasing out fossil fuels could potentially halve the damage risk to hospital infrastructure compared to scenarios with high emissions.
This study underscores the urgent need for proactive measures to mitigate the impact of climate change on critical healthcare infrastructure, especially in regions most vulnerable to extreme weather events.