Germany’s foreign intelligence service, the BND, reportedly assessed in 2020 that there was an 80%-90% likelihood that the COVID-19 virus accidentally leaked from China’s Wuhan Institute of Virology, according to German newspapers Die Zeit and Sueddeutsche Zeitung.
The BND’s assessment was based on intelligence gathered under Operation “Saaremaa” and publicly available data. The report also cited indications that the Wuhan lab conducted gain-of-function research, modifying viruses to make them more transmissible, and that multiple safety violations had occurred.
Though the findings were commissioned by then-Chancellor Angela Merkel’s office, the report was never published. However, it was reportedly shared with the US Central Intelligence Agency (CIA) in late 2024.
Ongoing Debate on COVID-19 Origins
In January 2025, a CIA spokesperson stated that the agency assessed a lab origin as “more likely” than a natural spillover, though with low confidence. The agency acknowledged that both scenarios remain plausible.
Meanwhile, China has strongly denied the lab-leak theory. Its foreign ministry insists that the Wuhan Institute of Virology never conducted gain-of-function research on coronaviruses and was not involved in COVID-19’s creation or leakage. Beijing has also accused Washington of politicizing the pandemic’s origins.