A powerful 7.2-magnitude earthquake, dubbed “The Big One,” could leave more than 50,000 dead and inflict heavy structural damage across Metro Manila, according to projections by the Philippine Institute of Volcanology and Seismology (Phivolcs).
In a report aired on “24 Oras Weekend,” Phivolcs Director Dr. Teresito Bacolcol estimated around 51,500 fatalities—33,500 from the quake itself, and an additional 18,000 from fires. The projected number of injured could reach 100,000.
The expected ground shaking in the National Capital Region (NCR) would reach intensity 8, with about 12% to 13% of residential buildings likely to suffer severe damage. Mid-rise buildings (10 to 30 storeys) could see 11% of structures heavily damaged, while taller high-rises (30 to 60 storeys) face around 2% heavy damage risk.
Although earthquakes cannot be predicted, the West Valley Fault—running along eastern Metro Manila—is considered “ripe” for a major quake, possibly within this or the next generation.
Bacolcol also warned of other potential seismic threats, including the Gabaldon Fault in Nueva Ecija (magnitude 7.9), the Philippine Trench (which could bring 8–9 meter tsunami waves to Eastern Samar), and the Manila Trench (magnitude 8.2 potential).
He reminded the public to evacuate immediately to higher ground after strong tremors—especially if preceded by a sudden sea level drop and a roaring sound—due to tsunami risks, as seen in the deadly 1976 quake in Cotabato that killed 8,000 people.