MANILA – The Department of Energy (DOE) and Independent Electricity Market Operator of the Philippines (IEMOP) have flagged a potentially critical power supply situation in the Visayas grid for 2026, with risks of multiple yellow alerts due to growing demand, plant outages, and heavy reliance on imports from Luzon and Mindanao. While the overall national outlook remains steady, Visayas stands out as the most vulnerable among the three major grids.
DOE Undersecretary Mylene Capongcol stated: “There’s a potential critical supply situation in the Visayas, based on the initial simulation of demand-supply.” She noted episodes of yellow alerts (thin reserves) are likely, depending on new capacity additions and demand management. IEMOP VP Isidro Cacho Jr. echoed: Visayas has become “primarily dependent” on Luzon-Mindanao interconnections, making it sensitive to any disruptions elsewhere.
Why Visayas is Vulnerable
- Import Dependence: Limited local generation; forced outages in Luzon/Mindanao could cascade shortfalls.
- Demand Growth: Projected rise amid economic activity, with spot prices potentially spiking to P7/kWh in summer 2026.
- 2025 Context: Eight yellow alerts already issued this year; recent ones lifted quickly but highlight fragility.
- Mitigation Hopes: ~6,000 MW committed projects nationwide in 2026 could help, but timing and Visayas-specific additions are key.
Luzon and Mindanao are expected stable, with no major issues assuming normal operations.
As peak summer looms, the warnings urge preparedness—energy efficiency, timely plant maintenance, and accelerated RE integration—to avoid disruptions in a region powering Central Philippines’ growth.
Grid Outlook Snapshot (2026 Projections):
| Grid | Status | Key Risk Factors |
|---|---|---|
| Visayas | Critical/Tight | Import reliance, outages elsewhere |
| Luzon | Stable | Adequate local capacity |
| Mindanao | Stable | Self-sufficient reserves |